As the COVID-19 epidemic spreads around the world, someGrain-exporting countries restrict rice andWheat export. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization says the global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, which may affect some countries and regions.Food security.
In the face of some domestic concerns about food shortages, heads of relevant departments and authoritative experts said in an interview with the Economic Daily that China's grain harvests have been bumper year after year, grain stocks are adequate, and rice and wheat stocks can meet consumer demand for more than a year. China has the confidence to deal with the possible global food crisis, firmly hold the "rice bowl" and ensure national food security.
The total grain stock is at an all-time high.
Years of bumper harvests in agriculture and adequate stocks are important "capital" for our country to have the ability and strength to cope with the possible global food crisis. Wang Liaowei, senior economist at the State Grain and Oil Information Center, said, "China has had a bumper grain harvest for 16 years in a row, and the current total grain inventory is at an all-time high." The macro-control ability of the national grain market has been continuously strengthened, on the whole, it has maintained the smooth operation of market prices, and played an important fundamental role in stabilizing the overall price level and macroeconomic stability. "
Since the 18th CPC National Congress, China's grain output has been stable at more than 650 million tons for five consecutive years, the grain self-sufficiency rate has been maintained at more than 95 percent, and the two major staple grains, rice and wheat, have been completely self-sufficient. Adequate inventory is the "stabilizer" of the grain market. China's grain inventory mainly includes government reserves, policy grain and enterprise turnover inventory. Among them, government reserves include central reserves and local reserves. Central grain reserves are the "ballast stone" for ensuring national food security, with a suitable storage rate of more than 98%. Local reserves are the "first line of defense" to ensure national food security. The reserve scale of the main producing areas is maintained for three months, the main sales area for six months, and the production and marketing balance area for four and a half months.
Large and medium-sized cities have also established reserves of finished grain and oil to meet the market supply for 10 to 15 days. In the variety structure reserved by the central and local governments, the proportion of rations such as wheat and rice exceeds 70%. In addition to the above-mentioned government reserves, since 2004, China has implemented the lowest purchase price for rice and wheat, and the policy grain inventory is high. In addition, multiple market entities have also established commercial inventory for normal production and operation.
At present, the stock of rations such as wheat and rice in China is at the highest level in history. The supply of rice is abundant, with an estimated surplus of 14.3 million tons in 2019, which has been surplus for many years in a row, and the characteristics of phased surplus are obvious; there is more than a balance between supply and demand of wheat. The National Grain and Oil Information Center estimates that the annual balance in 2019 is 14 million tons, an increase of 8.7 million tons over the same period last year, and production has exceeded demand for seven consecutive years. Not only is there no shortage of rice and wheat, but they are also under pressure to destabilize.
"the export restriction measures taken by major grain exporters as a result of the epidemic may aggravate the fluctuation of grain prices in the international market, but it will have little impact on China's grain market at present." Wang Liaowei said.
Moderate import to optimize the structure of grain supply
Moderate import is China's new national food security strategy. In recent years, China has actively developed international grain trade and has become an important grain importer in the world, importing more than 100 million tons of grain every year. "this is because there is a structural shortage of grain in our country, and the effective supply is insufficient. Although the output of rice and wheat exceeds the demand for many years in a row, the supply of high-quality wheat and rice is insufficient, there is a gap between production and demand in corn, and the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is less than 20%. It is necessary to adjust the surplus and shortage through imports, optimize the supply structure, and improve the overall level of national food security at a higher level. " Said Li Jun, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University.
In terms of varieties, China's imports of wheat and rice are very small. In 2019, for example, rice and wheat imports accounted for only 1.8% and 2.3% of that year's output. Therefore, the restrictions on grain exports by some countries have little impact on the supply of food rations in China. It is particularly noteworthy that while importing grain, China is also exporting grain. In 2019, China exported more than 200,000 tons of rice, making it a net exporter of rice.
China's grain imports are mainly feed grain and soybeans. Corn is not only one of the three staple grains, but also one of the main feed grains. In 2019, China imported 4.793 million tons of corn, an increase of 36 percent over the same period last year. At the same time, imports of corn substitutes such as barley, sorghum, corn lees and cassava all declined. Soybean is the main agricultural product imported by China, of which soybean imports account for more than 70% of the total agricultural imports, and it is the main raw material of edible vegetable oil and protein feed in our country. Feed grain and soybeans are important agricultural products to stimulate economic development in some big grain-producing countries, but they have not yet become agricultural products restricted by these countries.
The supply of grain and oil market is sufficient and stable.
The grain is safe all over the world, and the price of grain is stable. "China's grain supply and demand is generally loose, which can fully meet the daily consumption needs of the people and effectively deal with the test of major natural disasters and emergencies." Wang Liaowei said.
The global food crisis occurs frequently, which constantly tests the ability of various countries to cope with the food crisis. In recent years, China has experienced many tests of major public health events and natural disasters such as SARS in 2003, freezing disasters in southern China in 2008 and Wenchuan earthquake, and experienced several "roller coaster" fluctuations in food prices in the international market. especially in the face of the 2008 world food crisis, food shortage and even social unrest occurred in more than 30 countries, but China's grain market remained stable.
During the COVID-19 epidemic this year, my country once again successfully resolved the problem of grain supply in an environment of poor transportation and logistics, ensuring that the supply of grain and oil market was not out of stock and kept on file, and that the domestic grain and oil market operated smoothly and orderly. It is understood that in the early stage of the epidemic, people would buy and store more food if they did not go out at home. Due to the sufficient supply of goods in retail markets such as supermarkets and stores, the short-term collective purchase was also satisfied. At present, residents are psychologically stable when purchasing rice and flour oil, and the domestic supply of rice and flour oil is fully guaranteed.
